As I write this, schools in Anne Arundel County, Maryland, are opening their doors—officially signaling the end of summer and a return to regular routines. This summer was unusual for me personally—we never took a true summer vacation. While I managed to take a few Fridays off, it never felt quite the same.

Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in Jackson Hole, WY—a place that remains high on my bucket list. In his remarks, he suggested that the Fed may consider decreasing interest rates due to ongoing economic risks. He also noted that the labor market appears to be in a transition phase.

Historically, September and October can be challenging months for the stock market. However, with strong market momentum and the possibility of a September rate cut, could stocks push to new highs? Interestingly, last week we saw strength outside of technology—traditionally the recent leader—while tech lagged. This broadening of market performance is encouraging, as it suggests the rally may have more durability.

That said, the market will continue to face the same uncertainty we always watch closely—most notably, what the Fed decides to do next. We expect the next couple of months to be volatile, with the potential for stronger gains toward the end of the fourth quarter. Still, we don’t anticipate a runaway rally at this stage.

For now, we believe a defensive approach makes more sense than becoming overly aggressive, especially with markets near all-time highs. That’s how we’ve positioned portfolios. As always, it’s not about timing the market, but about how much time you spend invested in the market.

Wishing you a wonderful fall season and continued success in your investing journey.